Superforecasting
ISBN: 1101905565
EAN13: 9781101905562
Language: English
Pages: 0
Dimensions: 1.02" H x 9.06" L x 6.06" W
Weight: 0.88 lbs.
Format: Paperback

Superforecasting

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be Read More chevron_right

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